294 
FXUS63 KPAH 282356
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
656 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front's approach tonight will drive a line of storms
  into/across the area. There remains a conditional risk of
  severe weather by late this evening, mainly in SEMO. East of
  the Mississippi River...the threat transitions more to heavy
  rain/isolated flash flooding.

- Daily rain chances return over the back half of the week along
  with continued unseasonably mild temperatures in the 70s and
  80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The 12Z Cams are a tad slower than the 00Z solutions, moving a
line of convection to our Ozarks doorstep by about 04Z. How much
instability remains at that time is in question, mostly focused
across SEMO. That's where the best chance for surface based/near
severe storms will be, at least til around/shortly after 
midnight. After that, the line shifts east of the MS where 
instability wanes, and we transition more to a heavy 
rain/isolated flooding threat. The heaviest rains yesterday fell
near/just east of Poplar Bluff in SEMO, so that area will need 
to be watched closely for additional heavy rains with a lower 
threshold there potentially causing some localized flooding 
issues. Otherwise the storm total 1-2" amounts should be mostly 
absorbed but as always locally higher totals or in more 
sensitive areas to flooding will need to be monitored closely 
for flooding issues.

Despite a late night-early Monday diminishing trend, there will
still be ample warmth/moisture to help diurnal destabilization
and additional shower/storm activity to come to fruition during
the daytime Monday. Ultimately an open waved low pushes it on
thru and ends pops west to east across the area Monday night. 

Tuesday-Wednesday look dry and seasonally mild, with highs in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. We'll begin to get caught between
the evolving upper pattern of ridging to our east and troffing 
to our west by the latter portion of the week, so daily rain 
chances set in by then. Warm 70s and 80s still look to hold thru
the week's end.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions expected this evening. Shra/tsra will spread
across TAF sites overnight, reaching KCGI/KMVN around 06z,
KPAH/KEVV around 08z, and KOWB around 12z. Numerous shra/tsra
expected late tonight through tomorrow morning, with low 
VFR/MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys. Winds will be from the south to 
southwest at 10-15kts, with some gusts this evening and with any
thunderstorms/heavy showers.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...RST